Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT MARIA REMAINS A
WELL-ORGANIZED CYCLONE WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. HIGH-RESOLUTION
QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THE WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT... WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS. ALTHOUGH MARIA IS
GAINING SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... INCLUDING AN
EXPANSION OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND A LARGE BROAD WIND
FIELD...THE TRANSITION IS NOT YET COMPLETE.  CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS
DIAGRAMS FROM FSU ALSO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS STILL MOSTLY WARM
CORE. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...AND
IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/11. MARIA CONTINUES MOVING
RATHER SLOWLY BECAUSE THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FAR
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. FOR NOW...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE
MARIA ON A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA CAUSING MARIA TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 3 DAYS...BETWEEN THE GFS AND NOGAPS.
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 39.1N  47.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 40.2N  46.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 41.7N  43.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 43.3N  41.3W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 45.5N  39.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 51.0N  35.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 56.0N  31.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/1200Z 61.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Sep-2005 14:40:09 UTC