Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
 
DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA
WITH HINTS OF AN EYE TRYING TO REDEVELOP. HOWEVER...SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 70 KT...THOUGH THE CYCLONE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER AS
EVIDENCED BY A RECENT AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 976 MB FROM CIMSS.
THE HURRICANE HAS CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND A SLOW WEAKENING
SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE WEAKENING MIGHT
BE A BIT SLOWER THAN A TYPICAL TROPICAL SYSTEM BECAUSE OF MARIA
SLOWLY ACQUIRING EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL
MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THIS HURRICANE TO BE A LARGE POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS. 

AFTER A BRIEF MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... MARIA HAS RESUMED
A MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR ABOUT 045/12 KT.  THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT
NORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH A LITTLE ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.  AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DROP WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN THE
2 TO 3 DAY TIMEFRAME AND PULL MARIA MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT A BIT
SLOWER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AND NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 36.9N  50.4W    70 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 37.9N  49.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 39.4N  46.8W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 40.8N  44.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 42.5N  42.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 46.5N  38.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 52.0N  33.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/1800Z 58.0N  31.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 07-Sep-2005 20:40:08 UTC