Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
 
A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0850Z INDICATES THAT MARIA IS STRONGER THAN
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST ALONE...WITH MANY WIND
VECTORS GREATER THAN HURRICANE FORCE.  THIS IS THE BASIS FOR MAKING
MARIA A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN...AND ALSO FOR GREATLY EXPANDING THE
WIND RADII IN THE SHORT-TERM.  IT IS HARD TO KNOW WHETHER THIS IS A
TRUE REINTENSIFICATION DUE TO A TROUGH INTERACTION...OR IF MARIA
HAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SUGGESTED BY ITS SATELLITE
APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY EVENT...THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WAS SHEARING THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME INDISTINGUISHABLE
FROM MARIA... POSSIBLY AIDING THE GROWTH OF THE SYSTEM.  MARIA IS
BEGINNING TO HAVE A COMMA-LIKE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE PICTURES
WITH THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IMMINENT.  THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BEFORE IT BECOMES
FULLY EXTRATROPICAL ...THEN CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/12 WITH A SHORTER TERM MOTION CLOSER TO
045/14.  MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
CURRENT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
MORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.  AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN
THE 2 TO 3 DAY TIMEFRAME AND PULL MARIA MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48
HOURS BUT TO THE LEFT THEREAFTER SINCE THERE IS MORE GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 36.0N  50.9W    70 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 36.8N  49.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 38.2N  47.4W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 39.8N  45.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 41.5N  43.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 46.0N  38.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 51.5N  33.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/1200Z 58.0N  30.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 07-Sep-2005 14:55:08 UTC