Hurricane MARIA

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HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2005
 
MARIA'S CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE EYE HAS ALSO BECOME MUCH MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED
AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTH TAFB AND SAB CAME IN WITH AN
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77KT...AND RAW ODT NUMBERS ARE NOW AS
HIGH AS T4.9/87 KT. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS BEING
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/09. MARIA BRIEFLY SLOWED TO ABOUT
5 KT BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z...BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED OF 9 KT AS IT NEARS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MARIA
IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...
AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN 24
HOURS. BY 48-72 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MARIA RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER WATER WHERE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STRETCHED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST...BUT AN
OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONE APPEARS TO BE
FORMING TO THE NORTH. THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. BY 36 HOURS...THOUGH
...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE STEADY
WEAKENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO OR MERGES WITH A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 31.3N  57.0W    80 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 32.7N  57.0W    85 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 34.4N  56.2W    90 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 36.0N  54.8W    85 KT
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 37.3N  52.9W    75 KT
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 39.3N  49.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     09/0600Z 41.5N  43.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/0600Z 44.5N  36.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

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