Tropical Depression FOURTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005
 
THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION... WITH JUST
A VERY LIMITED AREA OF -70C CLOUD TOPS TO THE WEST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE NO GREATER THAN
2.0... AND THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO IMPOSE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT IS IMPEDING
ANY STRENGTHENING... AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
SHEAR...ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE...DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO. THE PROSPECTS FOR
INTENSIFICATION ARE THEREFORE LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY
WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND THE
GFS EVEN FORECASTS DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. PRESUMABLY DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE... THE SHIPS FORECASTS WEAK SHEAR
AND INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND ANTICIPATES SLIGHTLY LESS
STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10... A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT
OR EAST THAN EARLIER. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...THE
EXPECTATION OF A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM...AND A BIT OF AN EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE.  THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERHIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 20.4N  47.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 21.2N  48.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 22.4N  50.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 23.9N  51.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 25.5N  53.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 29.0N  55.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 31.5N  56.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     07/0000Z 34.0N  56.5W    50 KT
 
 
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