Tropical Storm LEE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005
 
A REVIEW OF MICROWAVE DATA STARTING AT ABOUT 31/1720Z SUGGESTS THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF LEE MOVED NORTHWARD BETWEEN 31/1800Z-
01/0000Z AND NORTHWESTWARD SINCE THEN...AND DID NOT FOLLOW THE
CONVECTION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS 50W.  AT THE MOMENT...A
WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS EXISTS ABOUT 90 N MI W OF THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION...AND WELL TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY POSITION.  THUS...THE INITIAL POSITION IS A CONSIDERABLE
RE-LOCATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE WEAKENING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED
ON A 29 KT WIND REPORTED BY SHIP ELTZ7.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10.  THE CENTER OF LEE
APPEARS TO HAVE MADE A PARTIAL LOOP AS IT MERGES WITH A BROAD
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WAS FORMING TO ITS NORTH.  MOST
LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAD A POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE CYCLONE...WITH
THE CENTER TOO FAR EAST AND A FORECAST TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. 
THE CANADIAN MODEL HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION AND DRIFTS LEE
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HR.  THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS CONTINUE THE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR AND THEN TURN LEE NORTHWARD.  THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION... CALLING FOR A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL.  THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME ERRATIC LOOPING MOTION DURING THE FIRST 12
HR OR SO AS LEE AND THE OTHER LOW FINISH THEIR MERGER.

THE MERGER OF LEE AND THE NON-TROPICAL LOW CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW
TROPICAL LEE ACTUALLY IS...ESPECIALLY SINCE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR JUST WEST OF THE
SURFACE CENTER.  NEITHER THE GFDL OR SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR
STRENGTHENING FOR 96 HR...AND THE CANADIAN BREAKS THE CIRCULATION
OPEN INTO A TROUGH AFTER 72 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ON THE PREMISE THAT CONVECTION
COULD RE-FORM FOR A TIME NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER.  HOWEVER...IF
THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...LEE COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW OR
TO EXTRATROPCIAL STATUS WITH 24 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 31.9N  51.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 32.7N  51.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 33.4N  51.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 34.6N  51.6W    30 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 35.8N  51.6W    25 KT
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 38.0N  51.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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