Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm IRENE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2005

IRENE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING.  A CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM
WRAPS NEARLY HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THIS
SUPPORTS RE-UPGRADING THE CYCLONE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THE
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE
SOUTH WHERE IT IS BEING IMPEDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW THAT THE NORTHERLY MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THAT HAD BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
ABATING AND THAT IRENE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  AS USUAL...THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY
TIME FRAME HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OWING TO A LACK OF SKILL
IN LONGER-RANGE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY PREDICTION.  

RECENT CENTER FIXES FROM BOTH GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER...FOR
CONTINUITY'S SAKE...I HAVE ADJUSTED THE CURRENT MOTION ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...290/11.  THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE THAT
CONCERNS US IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING TO BUILD NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC
STATES IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS
RIDGE WILL DRIVE IRENE TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.  IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE MORE
NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL AND
THE LATEST GFDL RUN...OR MOVE MORE WESTWARD AND REACH THE COAST AS
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GFDN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL
WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 23.5N  59.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 24.2N  61.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 25.4N  63.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 26.3N  65.7W    50 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 27.2N  67.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 28.5N  70.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 30.5N  72.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     16/0000Z 32.5N  75.0W    70 KT

 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 11-Aug-2005 02:40:05 UTC