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Tropical Storm FRANKLIN


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED NEAR 00Z AND 02Z A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB... DOWN ABOUT 4 MB COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 53
KT IN A BURST OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THESE
DATA... ALONG WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 45 KT. THE OVERALL
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE. THE LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS FLORIDA THAT ARE IMPOSING SHEAR ON
FRANKLIN... RESULTING ESSENTIALLY IN HALF OF A TROPICAL STORM...
WITH MOST OF THE WINDS AND CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 45 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN A BAND FARTHER
OUT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT ABOUT 50-75 NMI FROM THE CENTER.
THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED TO THE SOUTHEAST ACCORDINGLY.
 
THE RECON FIXES INDICATE THAT FRANKLIN HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY AND
IS NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH... WITH ESTIMATED INITIAL
MOTION OF 010/7. FRANKLIN IS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS JUST ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO SHARPEN WHILE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. LITTLE DOUBT REMAINS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL TURN FRANKLIN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW
FAST FRANKLIN WILL MOVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NWS MODELS...
GFS AND GFDL... ARE BY FAR THE FASTEST. THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS
TOO FAST EVEN INITIALLY SINCE IT SHOWS NEARLY AN IMMEDIATE
DECOUPLING OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS... WHICH DOES NOT
SEEM TO YET BE OCCURRING. THE UKMET AND THE NAVY MODELS... NOGAPS
AND GFDN... ARE MUCH SLOWER. IN FACT... THE 18Z NOGAPS IS QUITE A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z RUN. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL REMAIN SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE VERTICAL SHEAR MIGHT ABATE A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
BUT NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS FRANKIN MOVES
FARTHER NORTH AND THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH COMES OFF THE EAST COAST.
GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION... THE
DEVELOPMENT RATE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. IN FACT...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE... FRANKLIN COULD VERY WELL BECOME
SHEARED APART IN 2-3 DAYS. ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... THE
TROPICAL STORM WILL REACH SUB-27C SSTS ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE... SO
A WEAKENING TREND IS INTRODUCED LATE IN THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES IN BETWEEN
THE SHIPS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 28.4N  76.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 29.5N  75.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 30.7N  74.1W    55 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 31.5N  72.2W    60 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 32.2N  69.9W    60 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 33.5N  65.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 35.5N  60.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 38.0N  55.0W    50 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Jul-2005 03:10:03 UTC