Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm FRANKLIN


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005
 
DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED UP THE EAST SIDE AND INTO THE CENTER...WHICH HAS
ERODED THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE INNER CORE. BANDING FEATURES
HAVE ALSO COME AND GONE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND IN THE MELBOURNE RADAR DARA. AROUND 1532Z...AIR FORCE RECON
FOUND 53 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH
EQUALS A 42-43 KT SURFACE WIND...WHILE THE ONBOARD METEOROLOGIST
AGAIN ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 55-60 IN THE SAME AREA. HOWEVER...
THAT CONVECTIVE BAND HAS SINCE DISAPPEARED DUE TO THE DRY AIR...SO
THOSE SURFACE WINDS WERE LIKELY ENHANCED BY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. AS
SUCH...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 45 KT...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE PRESSURE HAS NOT FALLEN BELOW 1007 MB...AND THE CYCLONE
HAS A RAGGED LOOKING APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/08 KT. RECON AND RADAR POSITION ESTIMATES
INDICATE FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT A STEADY 8 KT OR SO
SINCE ABOUT 14Z. ACCORDING TO THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE NHC
MODELS...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN AND ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SPECIAL 18Z
UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND
SHOULD BE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. IF THE
SHORTWAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH...THEN IT MAY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN...AND CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AND MOVE
IT AWAY FROM THE U.S. HOWEVER...THE GFS... UKMET...AND THE CANADIAN
MODELS NOW ONLY TAKE FRANKLIN AS FAR NORTH AS 30N LATITUDE IN 36-48
HOURS...AND THEN LEAVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE...IT WOULD MEAN THAT FRANKLIN WOULD
CEASE TO EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THOSE MODELS ALSO MOVE THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 72
HOURS...MUCH LIKE THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE SHEAR ACROSS FRANKLIN HAS INCREASED FROM THE WEST AGAIN DUE TO
THE OUTFLOW FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
YUCATAN DISTURBANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES FRANKLIN IS
GETTING PINCHED FROM THE EAST BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SLOWER THAN NORMAL INTENSIFICATION
FORECASTS AS PER THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL BRINGS
FRANKLIN UP TO 89 IN 48 HOURS...BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE...
ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM AT THAT TIME.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 27.8N  76.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 28.9N  76.4W    50 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 30.0N  75.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 30.9N  73.8W    60 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 31.5N  72.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 32.8N  67.6W    60 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 34.0N  63.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 37.0N  56.5W    60 KT
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 22-Jul-2005 21:10:03 UTC