Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane EMILY


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005
 
DOPPLER RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT EMILY
IS STILL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
DECREASED ABOUT 14 MB IN THE PAST 4 HOURS...BUT THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO 96 KT ON THE OUTBOUND LEG 
AT 1939Z. HOWEVER...THE RECON WIND DATA ALSO INDICATED A TRIPLE WIND
MAXIMUM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT ABOUT 20...40...AND 50 N MI
FROM THE CENTER. THIS HAS LIKELY SPREAD OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND...FORTUNATELY...NOT ALLOWED THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH LIKE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WOULD TYPICALLY
SUPPORT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND IMPROVE IN ALL
QUADRANTS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
 
WHEN THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES ARE SMOOTHED OUT...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 290/10. RADAR AND RECON DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND EYE HAVE PROBABLY STABILIZED NOW. SPECIAL
18Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST WESTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN TEXAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS.  AS SUCH...A GENERAL 285-290 DEGREES MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND POSSIBLY EVEN UP UNTIL
LANDFALL OCCURS...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE WEST AFTERWARDS.
EVEN IF EMILY WAS TO MAINTAIN A 295 DEGREE MOTION...THE EYE WOULD
STILL REMAIN AT LEAST 50 N MI SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. THE GFDL
AND GFS MODELS ARE ALREADY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION...SO THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A TAD NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...AND IS ALSO A LITTLE NORTH OF NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL EMILY'S WINDS FINALLY ADJUST TO THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE? THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR OUT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND HAS ALSO CONTRACTED AS
SEEN IN THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88 DOPPLER RADAR DATA. THE TRIPLE WIND
MAXIMUM IS STILL NOTED IN THE RADAR DATA...BUT THE REFLECTIVITY IN
THOSE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAS DECREASED. THIS MAY BE A SIGN THAT THE
OUTER WIND FIELD IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE
INNER WIND FIELD TO SPIN UP. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN AND SSTS OF 85F AND WARMER...A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO RIGHT UP
UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE ROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
 
IF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD
LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO FAR
SOUTH TEXAS. EVEN IF EMILY BENDS TO THE WEST AS FORECAST...AN NHC
EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT SHOWS THERE IS AT LEAST AN 85 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE BROWNSVILLE AREA.
 
FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 24.3N  95.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 24.6N  97.2W   100 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 24.7N  99.3W    35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 48HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Jul-2005 21:10:03 UTC