Hurricane EMILY

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HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005
 
THE EYEWALL OF HURRICANE EMILY PASSED OVER COZUMEL A FEW HOURS AGO.
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OVERFLEW THE ISLAND
DURING THE EYEWALL PASSAGE...AT 05Z...AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 124 KT. AT 0322Z...THEY REPORTED 141 KT. LANDFALL
OCCURRED NEAR 0630Z JUST NORTH OF TULUM. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA
SUGGEST THAT EMILY LIKELY MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 115 KT. NO OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET
BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE LANDFALL AREA.

EMILY WILL BE SPENDING ROUGHLY 9 HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN...BUT IS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THIS PASSAGE. A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN WITHIN 12-24
HOURS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING.  THEREFORE...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
LIKELY ONCE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  JUST HOW MUCH EMILY RESTRENGTHENS IS PARTLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT THAT THE INNER CORE IS DISRUPTED AFTER
PASSING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN.    
 
THE INITIAL MOTION...295/15...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO BASICALLY UNCHANGED. NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT CONDUCTED SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS IN
THE GULF AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN LAST NIGHT. DROPSONDE DATA FROM
THESE MISSIONS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOLIDLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN
A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE COULD ALSO RESULT IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE
TRACK. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE INFLUENCES SHOULD DIMINISH IN
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE TRACK SHOULD THEN BEND BACK TOWARD
THE LEFT. THE GFS...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS STORM...IS
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS
ON THE NORTHERN EGDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IN FACT HAS OUTPERFORMED BOTH
THE NOGAPS AND GFS WITH THIS CYCLONE. NONE OF THE STANDARD GUIDANCE
SHOWS A LANDFALL IN SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN
THAT THE AVERAGE 48 HOUR TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 140 NMI...SUCH A
LANDFALL IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.

1-MINUTE DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056 WERE HELPFUL IN ADJUSTING THE 34
KT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 20.6N  88.0W    95 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 21.6N  90.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 22.9N  92.8W    85 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 23.8N  95.2W    95 KT
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 24.4N  97.7W   100 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 25.0N 103.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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