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Tropical Storm EMILY
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005
EMILY IS SHOWING IMPROVED BANDING THIS MORNING...AND A MICROWAVE
PASS AT 0920Z DOES MUCH TO IMPROVE CONFIDENCE IN A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED
ON A T3.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB. OUTFLOW IS STRONG BOTH
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS CONSOLIDATING...A MORE
RAPID STRENGTHENING TREND IS LIKELY...WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT BEING THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR. BOTH THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING EMILY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THREE DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS
GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/18...CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN
BEFORE. MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS HAD SOMETHING OF A RIGHT BIAS
SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD
KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE
CENTER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...EVEN MORE
SO THAN YESTERDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED ABOUT
100 NMI SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 11.0N 51.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 11.4N 53.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 11.9N 57.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 12.8N 60.2W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 14.0N 63.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 16.0N 69.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 80.0W 100 KT
$$
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