Tropical Storm ARLENE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
WINDS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  THEY DID REPORT ONE 35 KT WIND AT
THE 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL...ON THEIR LAST OUTBOUND LEG ABOUT 70 N MI
NE OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THAT OBSERVATION...THE INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE BANDING
FEATURES WARRANT ONLY A T1.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 90W...
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SOME ABATEMENT OF THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED BUT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL
FORECAST. 

INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...005/05.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND IN HEADING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST...AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE.  THIS IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LATEST GFDL TRACK AND SIMILAR TO
THE DEEP-LAYER BAM TRACK.  

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK SHOWN HERE...BECAUSE
OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE 2-3 DAY TIME
FRAME.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 17.6N  83.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 18.7N  84.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 21.0N  84.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N  85.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 25.8N  86.8W    50 KT
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 30.5N  88.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 35.0N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     14/0000Z...INLAND...DISSIPATED
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