Tropical Depression ONE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LOCATED A
POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 KT...MOSTLY CONFINED TO CONVECTIVE
BANDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THE
AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY... DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO NARROW BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND
THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED ONLY TO THE WEST...PRIMARILY DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THIS TROUGH AND DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS FORECAST IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
 
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 6
KT...WHILE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK.  HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A SLIGHT TURN TO THE LEFT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS BRING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
  
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 17.2N  84.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 18.1N  84.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 19.9N  84.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 22.2N  85.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 24.5N  86.3W    50 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 29.0N  88.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 34.0N  88.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     13/1800Z 37.5N  86.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 
 
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