Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane IVAN


ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004
 
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW
ORLEANS AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE WARNING AREA.
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF
APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS IN MEXICO AND CUBA HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN
REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST
CATEGORY THREE.
  
IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER 
AIRCRAFT WAS   929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE 
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE 
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.  WATER LEVELS ARE
ALREADY RUNNING UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST...AND WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...24.2 N... 86.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 14-Sep-2004 20:32:51 UTC