Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
0300Z MON SEP 13 2004
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 104.2W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 104.2W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.7N 105.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.7N 106.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.6N 106.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.5N 107.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.0N 107.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 20.6N 108.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 104.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
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