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Hurricane JAVIER
ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132004
2100Z SUN SEP 12 2004
INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.6W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.6W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 103.4W
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.0N 104.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.9N 105.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.7N 106.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.7N 106.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 103.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
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