Hurricane CHARLEY

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HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032004
2100Z WED AUG 11 2004
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
INCLUDE THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY...AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO OCEAN REEF
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA
BEACH.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  77.5W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE  75SE   0SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE  50SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  77.5W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  76.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.3N  79.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.5N  81.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.2N  82.5W...NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.0N  82.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 100SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 35.0N  79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 43.5N  72.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 49.0N  60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N  77.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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