Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 11 2004

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED 
A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH A REASONABLE
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION.  HENCE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
GUATEMALA IS IMPARTING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.

STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BEEN QUITE WEAK OVER THE AREA...BUT THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT.  A CONTINUED GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST SINCE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.  ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...IF A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION DEVELOPS...WATCHES
OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO LATER TODAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.  
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 14.4N  96.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.4N  97.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 14.3N  97.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 14.2N  98.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 14.2N  99.6W    60 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 14.5N 103.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 14.5N 106.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W    65 KT
 
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