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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2004

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOW THAT A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISTURBED WEATHER AREA TO THE SOUTH OF CABO
SAN LUCAS.  THERE IS ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE CENTER IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONVECTION...TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
INFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...SO ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMPLE AT THIS TIME.  A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SO A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST. 
HOWEVER...ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SITUATED ABOUT 500 N MI TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION COULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE
STEERING.  IF THIS IS CONFIRMED...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 13.9N 112.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 113.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 14.5N 116.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 14.5N 120.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 14.5N 124.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 14.5N 128.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 14.5N 132.0W    55 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 04-Oct-2004 20:36:23 UTC