Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH JAVIER HAS DEGRADED SOME TONIGHT
AND T NUMBERS FROM SAB/TAFB HAVE FALLEN ACCORDINGLY.  THE SMALL EYE
PRESENT EARLIER HAS FILLED...WITH EVIDENCE IN MICROWAVE DATA THAT A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE HAS BEGUN.  THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO
120 KT ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAS COLLAPSED...
CAUSING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN THE MAXIMUM WINDS.  

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MOTION... NW AT ABOUT 7 KT. 
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH TIME AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER NW MEXICO.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY 
KEEPS THE HIGH STRONG ENOUGH OVER MEXICO TO PREVENT A NORTHWARD
TURN.  THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST TO
WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING OF JAVIER FOR THOSE IN THE BAJA PENINSULA. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST... BETWEEN THE GFDL AND CONU.  THE UKMET MODEL IS THE ONLY
RELIABLE MODEL WHICH HAS THE HURRICANE AFFECTING BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE FACTORS TO KEEP JAVIER FROM
RE-INTENSIFYING.  THE CYCLONE IS FAIRLY SYMMETRIC AND THE CURRENT
WEAKENING MIGHT BE TEMPORARY AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING
AN EYEWALL CYCLE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THE
WEAKENING TREND INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. 
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AS EYEWALL CYCLES OCCUR BUT
JAVIER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. 
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 16.6N 107.4W   120 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 17.3N 108.0W   125 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.0N 108.6W   135 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 18.7N 109.3W   130 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 19.4N 110.1W   125 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W   120 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 24.5N 116.5W    65 KT
 
 
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