Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 13 2004
 
JAVIER IS INTENSIFYING AT A RAPID RATE. THE T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE NOW BOTH 5.0. IN 12 HOURS THE WIND SPEED HAS GONE FROM 65
KTS TO 90 KTS. THE INITIAL WIND IS INCREASED TO 90 KTS. JAVIER IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST 48-72 HR.
THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THAT TIME.
SHIPS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH 105 KTS IN 24 HOURS AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.

THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION PATTERN AND THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED FARTHER TOWARD THE WEST SUGGESTS THAT THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS STRONGER THAN THE MODELS
HAVE FORECAST.  THE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS MOVED TOWARD THE WEST AND
HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN WEST OF THE
CONCENSUS IN THE PAST TWO FORECAST CYCLES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GUNS AND GUNA SOLUTIONS.  

THE THREAT TO MEXICO IS NOW GREATLY REDUCED AND IF THE GUIDANCE
SHIFTS WESTWARD AGAIN IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE...THE THREAT WILL
BE GONE. 

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 14.4N 105.1W    90 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 15.1N 106.1W   100 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 16.1N 107.1W   105 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W   105 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 17.8N 108.5W   105 KT
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 19.1N 109.5W   105 KT
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 20.9N 111.2W   105 KT
120HR VT     18/0600Z 22.4N 112.8W   105 KT
 
 
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