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Hurricane JAVIER


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JAVIER HAS FORMED AN
INTERMITTENT POORLY-DEFINED EYE IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WITH
AN OUTER BAND LOOSELY WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...SO
JAVIER IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.  THE CIRRUS OUTLOW IS
CURRENTLY GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR-FAIR
ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/10.  JAVIER REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS
RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 72 HR OR SO AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...THEN THE RIDGE MAY RE-INTENSIFY
AFTER 96 HR AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A NEW TROUGH DIGS JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD
ALLOW JAVIER TO TURN NORTHWARD WITH DECELERATION DURING THE NEXT 96
HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN THEREAFTER.  THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED
AND DIRECTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
GFDL AND NOGAPS BRING THE CENTER INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO BEFORE 96 HR...AND ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.
 
JAVIER IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST
72 HR.  THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THAT
TIME ASSUMING IT STAYS OFFSHORE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THIS SMALL SYSTEM TO REACH 100 KT BY 48 HR IN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE STRONGER GFDL.  NEITHER MODEL STRENGTHENS
THE SYSTEM AFTER 48-60 HR...ALTHOUGH THE REASON FOR THIS IS NOT
READILY APPARENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT FOR
NOW...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT JAVIER WILL GET STRONGER
THAN FORECAST AFTER 48 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 13.4N 103.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.0N 104.7W    75 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 14.9N 105.6W    85 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 15.7N 106.2W    95 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 16.7N 106.5W   100 KT
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 106.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N 107.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     17/1800Z 22.5N 109.0W   100 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Sunday, 12-Sep-2004 20:44:34 UTC