Tropical Storm JAVIER

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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE BANDING
FEATURE THAT IS WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE NORTH INTO THE CDO FEATURE
OF JAVIER. THE CDO HAS VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -80
DEGREES C OR COLDER. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.

THE SYSTEM NOW LOOKS LIKE IT IS TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND SLOWING DOWN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING.  THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/8. JAVIER IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK NOW FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY CURVES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
SLOWS IT DOWN AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE.
 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 28-29C ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK OF JAVIER. IN ADDITION THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BY 24 HOURS INTO SINGLE
DIGIT VALUES AND REMAIN THAT WAY OUT TO ABOUT 66 HOURS. THE SHIPS
MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CALLS
FOR JAVIER TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS AND MAXIMUM
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS JUST AFTER RECURVATURE IS
COMPLETED.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 12.3N 102.0W    55 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 12.7N 103.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 13.7N 104.4W    75 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 14.7N 105.6W    80 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 106.2W    85 KT
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 17.7N 106.6W    90 KT
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 19.7N 107.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     17/0600Z 21.1N 107.7W    90 KT
 
 
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