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Tropical Storm ISIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 15 2004
 
ISIS IS STILL FAIRLY ORGANIZED AS DEPICTED BY INFRARED IMAGERY AND
PERSISTENT CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY STAYS AT 55 KTS BASED ON UNCHANGED DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION
IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...BUT A GENERAL MOVEMENT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF 290/4 IS ESTIMATED.
 
THE 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE STILL KEEPS ISIS IN THE SAME AREA OVER
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DURING THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS
FOLLOWED BY A WESTAWRD DRIFT.  SINCE THE MEAN-LAYER FLOW IS QUITE
WEAK...ISIS WILL LINGER IN THE SAME VICINITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH VERY SLOW MOTION OR WILL JUST REMAIN STATIONARY.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A LEISURELY DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE.  SINCE ISIS WILL LINGER IN THE SAME AREA WHERE
ABOVE 26 DEGREE SSTS PERSIST AND THE SHIPS SHEAR IS LOW...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR ISIS TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS.

FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 17.4N 131.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 17.6N 131.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 17.6N 132.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 17.6N 132.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 17.6N 133.2W    50 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N 134.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 17.5N 134.5W    45 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Sep-2004 09:06:12 UTC