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Tropical Storm ISIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 13 2004
 
VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT ISIS CONTINUES TO HAVE INTERMITTANT
BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. WIND SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO BE
LESSENING...ACCORDING TO THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS INFLOW ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE CONTINUES AND IS
MORE THAN LIKELY THE ONLY MECHANISM THAT IS PREVENTING ISIS FROM
INTENSIFYING. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM
SAB...45 KT FROM AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN AT 45 KT. SHIPS WANTS TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ISIS BUT
THE INTRUSION OF THE DRIER AIR SEEMS TO BE TAKING ITS TOLL. ISIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN SLOWLY AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST HOLDS THE SYSTEM INVARIANT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6 KT. ISIS IS SLOWING DOWN AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE BEEN PREDICTING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
ISIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST...ISIS SHOULD SLOW AND MEANDER AS STEERING CURRENTS
DECREASE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET AND
NOGAPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 16.7N 129.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 16.7N 130.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 16.8N 131.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.8N 131.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 16.9N 132.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.1N 132.2W    45 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 17.5N 132.2W    45 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 17.4N 132.2W    45 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 14-Sep-2004 03:14:24 UTC