Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ISIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004
 
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICT THAT THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF ISIS HAS TUCKED IN BENEATH
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST
QUADRANT. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB
AND 30 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB.  WE WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE BANDING
FEATURES BECOME BETTER DEFINED BEFORE RE-UPGRADING ISIS TO A
TROPICAL STORM. THE SHIPS AND NOW THE GFDL SHOW A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TREND THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF.
UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW 10 TO 20 KT OF
EASTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE MODELS AND THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN. THE FORECAST
INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AGREES WITH THE
SHIPS AND THE GFDL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/8. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF A
MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO/BAJA THROUGH 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS...A DEEPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM BAJA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN MOTION BEYOND
THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED OFF OF GUNA AND THE CONU CONSENSUS. 

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 17.5N 120.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 17.5N 122.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 17.5N 124.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 17.5N 126.1W    40 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 17.5N 127.9W    45 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 132.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N 134.5W    45 KT
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 11-Sep-2004 20:44:37 UTC