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Tropical Storm ISIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004
 
THE TOPS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IF NEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS POP UP WITHIN THE NEXT 6
HOURS...ISIS WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
ALL AGENCIES ARE REPORTING T NUMBERS NOW...WITH TAFB AT T1.0...SAB
AT T1.5 AND KGWC AT T2.0. ANOTHER RECENT HIGH DENSITY QUIK SCAT
PASS SHOWED A LOT OF 25 AND 30 KT WINDS AND A FEW POSSIBLE
CONTAMINATED 35 AND 40 KT WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT
30 KT.  SHIPS NOW WANTS TO MAKE ISIS A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 12
HOURS.  ALSO...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...DUE WEST...KEEPS THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO WARM SSTS AND IN VERY LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR 72 HOURS. 
IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ISIS CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF OUT TO 120 HOURS.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW LARGELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  ISIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BUT HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH AND RUNS DUE WEST.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 17.4N 119.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.4N 120.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 17.4N 122.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 17.4N 124.9W    45 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 17.4N 126.9W    45 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 17.4N 131.2W    45 KT
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.4N 135.6W    45 KT
120HR VT     16/0600Z 17.4N 139.7W    45 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 11-Sep-2004 08:44:38 UTC