Hurricane HOWARD

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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 02 2004

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS A BEAUTIFUL PIN HOLE EYE HAS APPEARED
AND IS RINGED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 102 KT
FROM TAFB. ALSO...THE THREE HOURLY AVERAGED ODT VALUE IS 5.2 FROM
TAFB. WITHOUT A DOUBT THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE IN
A RAPID DEEPENING PROCESS.   WE HAVE PROBABLY BEEN SLIGHTLY BEHIND
ON OUR OFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED FOR THIS PACKAGE IS SET AT 100 KTS.  THIS MAKES HOWARD A
CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE.  EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD FOR
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE HOWARD BEGINS
TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  WEAKENING BEGINS AFTER 24 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 305/8.  HOWARD CONTINUES TO PUSH
AGAINST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA.  WIDE
DIVERGENCE CONTINUES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OUT TO 48 HOURS AND THEN TURNS THE SYSTEM
TOWARD THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW NEAR DAY FIVE.  
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 17.6N 113.0W   100 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.2N 114.1W   110 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.1N 115.2W   115 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 116.3W   110 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N 117.2W    95 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 23.5N 118.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 26.2N 119.2W    35 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     07/0600Z 29.0N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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