ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU SEP 02 2004 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS A BEAUTIFUL PIN HOLE EYE HAS APPEARED AND IS RINGED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 102 KT FROM TAFB. ALSO...THE THREE HOURLY AVERAGED ODT VALUE IS 5.2 FROM TAFB. WITHOUT A DOUBT THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE IN A RAPID DEEPENING PROCESS. WE HAVE PROBABLY BEEN SLIGHTLY BEHIND ON OUR OFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED FOR THIS PACKAGE IS SET AT 100 KTS. THIS MAKES HOWARD A CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE. EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE HOWARD BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. WEAKENING BEGINS AFTER 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 305/8. HOWARD CONTINUES TO PUSH AGAINST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. WIDE DIVERGENCE CONTINUES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OUT TO 48 HOURS AND THEN TURNS THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW NEAR DAY FIVE. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 17.6N 113.0W 100 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 18.2N 114.1W 110 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 19.1N 115.2W 115 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 20.0N 116.3W 110 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 21.0N 117.2W 95 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 23.5N 118.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 06/0600Z 26.2N 119.2W 35 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 07/0600Z 29.0N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Sep-2004 08:33:40 UTC