Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane HOWARD


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 01 2004

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  HOWARD
IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. THIS BODES SOMEWHAT WELL FOR THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION THAT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DETERMINED IN THE LAST
FORECAST CYCLE.  HOWEVER...IN THIS CYCLE...SHIPS IS NOT AS
AGRESSIVE...ONLY 5 OF 7 CONDITIONS ARE SATISFIED. EARLIER MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWED A BANDING EYE FEATURE AND AN EYE MAY BEGIN TO FORM
SOON.  INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATIONS SHOW ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  BASED ON ALL THIS...I AM STILL GOING
TO CONTINUE TO FORECAST HOWARD TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...HOWARD WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER SSTS
...STABLE AIR...AND INCREASING SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP BEGIN THE
WEAKENING PROCESS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11 KT. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE
SAME.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA WHICH HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING HOWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS WITH THE UKMET MODEL NOW
FORECASTING HOWARD TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER BAJA AND THE
GFS SHOWING A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE REMAINING
MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT IS ALSO NEAR THE
NAVY NOGAPS MODEL.
  
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 15.9N 110.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 16.6N 111.5W    80 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 17.7N 113.6W    90 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.8N 115.5W   100 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 19.6N 117.1W    90 KT
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 20.9N 119.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 22.7N 120.8W    65 KT
120HR VT     06/0600Z 24.4N 121.8W    50 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Sep-2004 08:33:57 UTC