Hurricane HOWARD

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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 01 2004

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  HOWARD
IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. THIS BODES SOMEWHAT WELL FOR THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION THAT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DETERMINED IN THE LAST
FORECAST CYCLE.  HOWEVER...IN THIS CYCLE...SHIPS IS NOT AS
AGRESSIVE...ONLY 5 OF 7 CONDITIONS ARE SATISFIED. EARLIER MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWED A BANDING EYE FEATURE AND AN EYE MAY BEGIN TO FORM
SOON.  INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATIONS SHOW ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  BASED ON ALL THIS...I AM STILL GOING
TO CONTINUE TO FORECAST HOWARD TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...HOWARD WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER SSTS
...STABLE AIR...AND INCREASING SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP BEGIN THE
WEAKENING PROCESS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11 KT. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE
SAME.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA WHICH HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING HOWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS WITH THE UKMET MODEL NOW
FORECASTING HOWARD TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER BAJA AND THE
GFS SHOWING A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE REMAINING
MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT IS ALSO NEAR THE
NAVY NOGAPS MODEL.
  
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 15.9N 110.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 16.6N 111.5W    80 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 17.7N 113.6W    90 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.8N 115.5W   100 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 19.6N 117.1W    90 KT
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 20.9N 119.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 22.7N 120.8W    65 KT
120HR VT     06/0600Z 24.4N 121.8W    50 KT
 
 
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