ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED SEP 01 2004 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWARD IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. THIS BODES SOMEWHAT WELL FOR THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DETERMINED IN THE LAST FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER...IN THIS CYCLE...SHIPS IS NOT AS AGRESSIVE...ONLY 5 OF 7 CONDITIONS ARE SATISFIED. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED A BANDING EYE FEATURE AND AN EYE MAY BEGIN TO FORM SOON. INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATIONS SHOW ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. BASED ON ALL THIS...I AM STILL GOING TO CONTINUE TO FORECAST HOWARD TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...HOWARD WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER SSTS ...STABLE AIR...AND INCREASING SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11 KT. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA WHICH HAS BEEN PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING HOWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS WITH THE UKMET MODEL NOW FORECASTING HOWARD TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER BAJA AND THE GFS SHOWING A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE REMAINING MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS ALSO NEAR THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 15.9N 110.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 16.6N 111.5W 80 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 17.7N 113.6W 90 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 18.8N 115.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 19.6N 117.1W 90 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 20.9N 119.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 05/0600Z 22.7N 120.8W 65 KT 120HR VT 06/0600Z 24.4N 121.8W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Sep-2004 08:33:57 UTC