Tropical Storm HOWARD

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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 31 2004
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HOWARD IS BECOMING A HEALTHY TROPICAL
STORM WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES AND OUTFLOW ALOFT.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS NOW GIVE A T3.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA WHICH CORRESPOND
TO 55 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AND HOWARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24
HOURS...AND TO MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH 72
HOURS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...COOLER WATERS MAY CAUSE HOWARD TO
WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN SHOWN HERE.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS WNW AT 11 KT. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA WHICH HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING HOWARD. AS SEEN EARLIER
TODAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS WITH
THE CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS FORECASTING HOWARD ON A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...AND THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOWING A GENERALLY 
WESTWARD TRACK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL HAS SHIFTED TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF GUNA AND
CONU.  THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS.      

FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 14.8N 108.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 15.7N 110.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 16.6N 112.3W    70 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 17.5N 114.4W    75 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 18.3N 116.3W    75 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 21.0N 121.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 23.0N 123.0W    50 KT
 
 
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