Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 30 2004

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MAIN CONVECTION IS EAST OF
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE
LATEST AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS APPROXIMATELY 30 KTS...SO THE
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/12. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 72
HOURS...THE GFS AND GFDL MOVE THE CYCLONE DUE NORTH WHEREAS NOGAPS
TAKES A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK. IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONU GUIDANCE TREND WHICH MOVES THE
CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF DUE NORTH AS THE OTHER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE TO
65 KTS BY 72 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER
TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C. THE OTHER CRITICAL COMPONENT IS THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH REMAINS BELOW 10 KTS BUT
THIS SHEAR DOES INCREASE BEYOND 72 HOURS.  THIS COMBINATION OF THE
COOLER SSTS AND INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING DURING
THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD. 
 
FORECASTER SISKO/STEWART/JARVINEN
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0300Z 13.5N 105.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 14.3N 106.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 15.5N 109.1W    50 KT
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 16.5N 111.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 17.2N 114.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     03/0000Z 18.2N 116.6W    65 KT
 96HR VT     04/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     05/0000Z 21.5N 120.5W    50 KT
 
 
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