ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON AUG 30 2004 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MAIN CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE LATEST AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS APPROXIMATELY 30 KTS...SO THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/12. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE GFS AND GFDL MOVE THE CYCLONE DUE NORTH WHEREAS NOGAPS TAKES A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK. IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONU GUIDANCE TREND WHICH MOVES THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF DUE NORTH AS THE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE TO 65 KTS BY 72 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C. THE OTHER CRITICAL COMPONENT IS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH REMAINS BELOW 10 KTS BUT THIS SHEAR DOES INCREASE BEYOND 72 HOURS. THIS COMBINATION OF THE COOLER SSTS AND INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING DURING THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER SISKO/STEWART/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 13.5N 105.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 14.3N 106.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 15.5N 109.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 16.5N 111.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 17.2N 114.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 03/0000Z 18.2N 116.6W 65 KT 96HR VT 04/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 05/0000Z 21.5N 120.5W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Aug-2004 03:04:23 UTC