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Tropical Depression NINE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH IS BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST BY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHEAR TENDENCY
ANALYSES BY THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE
SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR 20 KT...AND
INCREASING.  THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS UNLIKELY AND THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
290/6.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC TRADEWIND FLOW.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 18.9N 125.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 19.0N 127.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N 131.5W    25 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N 134.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/0000Z 19.0N 146.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Aug-2004 02:33:27 UTC