Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane FRANK


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2004
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY T-NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...35 KT FROM AFWA AND 54 KT FROM AN AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT. CORE CONVECTION
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WITH REMAINING WEAK BANDING CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTED THAT DEEP
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAS COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED. TROPICAL STORM FRANK SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST WEAKENING TO AN
OPEN TROUGH BY THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT. A TURN TO
THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS IS EXPECTED. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THIS FORECAST MOTION AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A LIFTING TROUGH OVER BAJA.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT THE TROUGH HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE RIDGE SHOULD
PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND AGREES WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 22.1N 116.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 22.8N 119.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 22.9N 120.9W    25 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 23.0N 122.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 23.0N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/0600Z 23.0N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Aug-2004 08:43:14 UTC