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Hurricane FRANK


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004
 
THE EYE OF FRANK IS NO LONGER VISIBLE ON VISIBLE OR IR IMAGERY...
THERE DO APPEAR TO BE TWO SMALL BANDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
CENTER TO HELP IN ITS LOCATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
THE LOSS OF THE EYE SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE IS WEAKENING...THUS
THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KNOTS...MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LATEST
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND ITS CONSTRAINTS ON WEAKENING STORMS. THE
HURRICANE IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...ACCORDING TO
SST ANALYSES THE CYCLONE IS NEARING THE 25C ISOTHERM AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS WHICH WEAKEN THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FRANK IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT
9 KNOTS. THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR PHOENIX CONTINUES TO EJECT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD....AND ITS ATTENDANT TROUGH WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS SLOWLY LIFTING OUT AS WELL. THIS TROUGH SHOULD LIFT
OUT COMPLETELY WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND RIDGING SHOULD
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST
MEXICO. EVEN IF THE RIDGING ALOFT IS DELAYED...THE WEAKENING STORM
WILL EXHIBIT LESS CENTRAL CONVECTION IN 36-48 HOURS DUE TO THE COOL
SSTS...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE WEST AND
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FROM THE WEST.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATION WITHIN 72
HOURS...EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE APPEARING BETTER INITIALIZED WITH THE
HURRICANE THAN SEEN ON PREVIOUS RUNS/DAYS. THE BAMM SUITE BASED ON
THE GFS STILL BRINGS THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD...BUT HAS TRENDED
SOUTH FROM ITS SOLUTION EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THE LARGER SIZE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E
IN THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST...THE SYSTEM DOES HAVE THE LARGER
ENVELOPE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
 
FORECASTER ROTH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 21.3N 115.3W    70 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 22.3N 116.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 23.1N 119.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 23.1N 121.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 22.8N 124.9W    30 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 22.4N 127.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     29/1800Z 21.9N 130.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Aug-2004 20:43:20 UTC