Tropical Depression SEVEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 19 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME MORE
RAGGED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN AT 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING IS
STILL EXPECTED FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL. BEYOND 48 HOURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KT TO REFLECT
THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 280/11 AND A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS.  A SLIGHT
BEND BACK TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS A 500 MB RIDGE
REBUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS TRACK EXCEPT AT 120 HOURS. THIS TRACK BRINGS THE CYCLONE
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN FIVE DAYS. 
  
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 12.2N 134.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 12.8N 136.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 13.8N 138.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 14.9N 140.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 15.9N 142.1W    50 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N 145.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 149.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 154.0W    50 KT
 
 
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