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Tropical Depression SIX-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 29 2004

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED AND NOT
WELL-ORGANIZED...AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS DO NOT DEPICT AN OBVIOUS
CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  ALSO...DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM
SEVERAL HOURS AGO CAST SOME DOUBT ON THE EXISTENCE OF A DEFINITE
SURFACE CIRCULATION.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS
AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXCESSIVELY HIGH...THE SYSTEM MAY
SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
HOWEVER...GIVEN ITS CURRENT CONDITION...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS
FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS IF NOT
SOONER.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT OBVIOUS...MY BEST GUESS IS THAT IT...OR
THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM...IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.  WITH LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE
NORTH...A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR
REMNANT LOW...IS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 16.3N 116.7W    25 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 16.3N 118.4W    25 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 16.3N 120.7W    25 KT
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 16.4N 123.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     31/1800Z 16.5N 124.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 16.7N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 17.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Jul-2004 20:42:28 UTC