Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression SIX-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUL 29 2004
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 425 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX-E. THE CONSERVATIVE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5
...OR 25 KT...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES AND UNCONTAMINATED
25-30 KT SSMI WINDS NOTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION IN A
29/0452Z SSMI OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A
GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
RESULT OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS WERE POORLY INITIALIZED
BY AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES TO FAR SOUTH AT 29/00Z AND...THEREFORE...
GIVE THE APPEARANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MAKE A SOUTHWESTWARD
JOG FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED...
ALTHOUGH A TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS A POSSIBILITY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL AND THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL...P91E.

DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MUCH COOLER WATER...THERE IS ONLY
ABOUT 36 HOURS AVAILABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO
OCCUR. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS CURRENTLY QUITE FAVORABLE
WITH THE CYCLONE ALREADY POSSESSING A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF MAJOR HURRICANE DARBY IS BEGINNING TO
TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD TD SIX-E. THIS MAY RESULT IN INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE COOLER WATER AHEAD...
PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE 40 KT...AS INDICATED BY
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 17.0N 114.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 17.2N 115.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 17.5N 117.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 17.7N 119.7W    40 KT
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 17.8N 121.8W    35 KT
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N 130.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/0600Z 19.0N 134.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Jul-2004 08:42:27 UTC