ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU JUL 29 2004 THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 425 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E. THE CONSERVATIVE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 ...OR 25 KT...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES AND UNCONTAMINATED 25-30 KT SSMI WINDS NOTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION IN A 29/0452Z SSMI OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS WERE POORLY INITIALIZED BY AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES TO FAR SOUTH AT 29/00Z AND...THEREFORE... GIVE THE APPEARANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MAKE A SOUTHWESTWARD JOG FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED... ALTHOUGH A TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS A POSSIBILITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL...P91E. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MUCH COOLER WATER...THERE IS ONLY ABOUT 36 HOURS AVAILABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS CURRENTLY QUITE FAVORABLE WITH THE CYCLONE ALREADY POSSESSING A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF MAJOR HURRICANE DARBY IS BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD TD SIX-E. THIS MAY RESULT IN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE COOLER WATER AHEAD... PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE 40 KT...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 17.0N 114.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 17.2N 115.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 17.5N 117.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 17.7N 119.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 31/0600Z 17.8N 121.8W 35 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 130.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/0600Z 19.0N 134.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Jul-2004 08:42:27 UTC