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Hurricane DARBY


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 31 2004
 
DARBY CONTINUES AS A WEAKENING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUD THAT IS CURRENTLY
VOID OF CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT...
WITH ALL THE USUAL UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT HOW FAST THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM
USUALLY WEAKENS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/13.  DARBY IS SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW/MID
LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY
WESTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF ITS LIFE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
WHILE DARBY SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATER FROM HERE ON...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DEVELOPING OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING...
WITH DARBY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR AND AN EASTERLY WAVE
AFTER 72 HR.  DARBY MAY DISSIPATE EVEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

THAT IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON DARBY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.  FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 18.9N 139.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 18.9N 141.7W    25 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 18.9N 145.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 19.0N 148.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N 151.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 19.0N 156.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Jul-2004 20:42:31 UTC