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Hurricane DARBY


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 31 2004
 
DARBY IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ONE SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM ALL AGENCIES BUT A RECENT
QUIKSCAT SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW 35 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE
CENTER.  ALL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO WITH
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOL SSTS.  THE SSTS WARM UP APPROACHING
HAWAII...SO THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A REMNANT LOW OUT TO 120
HOURS...BUT THE REMNANT MAY NOT LAST THAT LONG.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/14.  WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOSTLY
WESTWARD TRACK AND A SMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT AFTER 96 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONCENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0900Z 19.0N 136.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     31/1800Z 19.2N 138.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N 142.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 18.9N 145.1W    25 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 19.2N 148.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 19.8N 152.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 156.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     05/0600Z 22.5N 159.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Jul-2004 08:32:29 UTC