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Tropical Depression THREE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 12 2004
 
THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS IT IS
OBSCURED BY CLOUDS AND IS PERHAPS BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED.  THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/11.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS SHOW A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS INDICATED BY
96 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL
FLOW.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY BY
SHOWING AN INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE
WEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THIS CYCLONE TO THE WEST CURRENTLY DOES
NOT APPEAR TO EXIST.
 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER SSTS LESS THAN 26 DEGREES
CENTIGRADE.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING TO
NEAR 50 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER IN ABOUT 48
HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 15.8N 107.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 16.9N 108.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 18.7N 111.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 20.2N 113.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 23.5N 119.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 25.0N 122.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     17/1800Z 25.0N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 12-Jul-2004 20:42:20 UTC