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Tropical Storm OTTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED DEC 01 2004

OTTO IS HANGING ON AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW.  DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER MEAGER AND IS CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  BECAUSE THE STORM IS NEAR THE
AXIS OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS WOULD BRING
ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  SO...EVEN
THOUGH OTTO IS MOVING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS...IT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO A HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...145/5.  GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR OTTO...TO
THE EAST OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL
SUITE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 30.7N  49.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 30.0N  49.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 29.2N  48.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 28.3N  48.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 27.4N  47.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 26.0N  45.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 25.0N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Dec-2004 20:33:55 UTC