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Tropical Storm OTTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED DEC 01 2004
 
THE SYSTEM IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A
SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE CIRCULATION.  EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD SLIGHTLY
WARMER WATERS...WESTERLY SHEAR....ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA...IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AND CAUSE
WEAKENING.  OTTO IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO REMNANT LOW
STATUS...AND IT MAY DO SO SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

THE MOTION IS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD...135/3.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT OTTO SHOULD REMAIN IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS REASONING...AND IS ABOUT IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUITE.  THIS IS A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 31.4N  50.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 30.8N  49.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 30.0N  49.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 29.2N  48.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 28.5N  47.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 27.0N  46.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 25.5N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     06/1200Z 24.0N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Dec-2004 14:33:53 UTC