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Hurricane LISA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 02 2004
 
IN SOMEWHAT OF A SURPRISE...CONVECTION HAS COOLED AGAIN NEAR THE EYE
OF LISA AND THE SYSTEM IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 6 HR AGO. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM
SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  LISA IS AGAIN UPGRADED TO A 65 KT
HURRICANE DESPITE BEING OVER 23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...AS LISA IS
STARTING TO INTERACT WITH FRONTAL ZONE CLOUDINESS AND THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FALL BELOW 20C IN
LESS THAN 24 HR.  THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASING SHEAR...SHOULD
WEAKEN THE STORM AND CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT
36 HR.  AFTER THAT...LISA SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/21.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.  LISA SHOULD ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS
ABSORBED.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 40.8N  40.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 43.0N  36.1W    60 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 44.9N  28.1W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 46.1N  18.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 02-Oct-2004 08:33:44 UTC