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Tropical Storm LISA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004
 
AFTER NEALY TWO WEEKS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...LISA
REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE 8TH HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON.
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND
THE EYE FEATURE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. CONSEQUENTLY...
SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN ADDITION...
LATEST AVAILABLE SSMI SHOW A RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE
AND AMSU ESTIMATES ARE 64 KNOTS AND 987 MB PRESSURE. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...LISA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE. HOWEVER...LISA
IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
SOON.
 
LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 19 KNOTS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. THEREFORE
...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. LISA IS EXPECTED TO TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 38.4N  45.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 40.5N  42.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 43.5N  37.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 45.5N  29.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 01-Oct-2004 20:23:43 UTC