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Tropical Storm LISA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004
 
LISA HAS BEEN A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LISA STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD
PATTERN WITH AN EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE RING OF CONVECTION IS
NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT A HURRICANE. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60
KNOTS BUT AT ANY TIME WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANCE FORCE.
LISA IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN SOON.
 
LISA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST OR 035 DEGREES AND HAS INCREASED
ITS FORWARD SPEED TO 15 KNOTS. LISA IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36
HOURS. LISA IS EXPECTED TO TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE THEREAFTER.
 
THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED USING THE LASTEST HIGH RESOLUTION
QUIKSCAT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 36.9N  46.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 39.0N  44.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 42.0N  39.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 44.0N  33.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 46.5N  24.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 01-Oct-2004 14:43:43 UTC